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In Russia, the authorities are once again increasing the size of payments for signing a contract with the Russian army.
In some regions, the amounts have exceeded 4 million rubles.
Ukrainian experts are confident that such an “auction of generosity” is a sign of significant problems with recruitment for the occupying forces.
What such steps by the Russian authorities indicate and what this may lead to is explained by ArmyInform.
In St. Petersburg, Russia, just over the past week, payments for signing a contract have increased by 1.5 million rubles and now amount to 4.5 million.
This is reported by the outlet Meduza. According to their data, this is currently the highest one-time payment for signing a contract among all regions.
Second place goes to the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, where 4 million 100 thousand rubles are promised.
Overall, since the beginning of the year, such payments have increased in more than 14 Russian regions.
This indicates a recruitment crisis in the Russian army
Another increase in payments indicates that Russia is now experiencing a crisis in recruiting personnel under contract, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk told ArmyInform.
According to him, Russia is trying to compensate with money for the phenomenon of mobilization.
“In October 2022, mobilization was announced. I closely follow their monthly indicators.
And since October 2022, there hasn’t been a single month when they placed at least 50,000 personnel into the ranks. It varies between 30 and 45 thousand.
By the way, in January of this year, there is a unique phenomenon — our destruction of enemy manpower surpassed their recruitment. That’s about 6,000 people.
Our President posed the question correctly — for them to feel real pain, the level of enemy personnel destruction must be raised to 50,000 per month”, — Petro Chernyk said.
If we take the statistics for this year, Russia is seeing a decrease in the number of signed contracts.
“Based on the results of January 2026, we can already conclude there is a significant decrease. But here we must take into account, strange as it may sound, the so-called cycle of New Year and Christmas holidays. It affects them as well.
A real assessment can be made based on the results of February and March”, — Chernyk noted.
If we reach the figure of destroying 50,000 personnel per month — it will be catastrophic for Russia
In his opinion, Russia is gradually moving toward comprehensive mobilization, although it is trying to avoid it.
As long as they have oil and gas dollars, they will continue recruiting contract soldiers with money. But this cannot last forever.
And Russia’s authorities fear comprehensive mobilization.
“Their foreign currency reserves are decreasing, and accordingly, resources will decrease. No one can calculate exactly when this threshold will be reached…
If we reach the indicator of destroying 50,000 personnel per month — it will be catastrophic for them.
With contract recruitment, they will not be able to put that many people into the ranks. Then they will have to announce full-scale mobilization.
But Putin fears this like fire. It could trigger social pressure inside Russia.
Although there is a nuance. I do not believe an uprising from below is possible. But one of the Kremlin towers might use this social dissatisfaction to transfer Putin himself”, — Chernyk emphasized.
“Since the beginning of these payments, they have increased 5–6 times — but they still cannot gather more people”
Payments for signing contracts have increased not only in Russian regions but also in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories.
There, the occupiers are also trying to recruit local populations, taking advantage of socioeconomic problems.
For example, in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, the payment amount increased by 200 thousand and now stands at 1 million rubles.
This was reported by the head of the “Center for the Study of Occupation”, Petro Andriushchenko.
Additionally, as an incentive, they introduced the possibility of debt forgiveness to banks and microfinance companies.
“As for the raises inside Russia itself — especially in those first ten regions that increased payments in January — the situation there is that they didn’t meet the December recruitment plan.
And earlier, around October, they had lowered the payment amount. So to a large extent, they simply restored those rates now.
This indicates they have problems with recruiting people. Therefore, they are forced to raise these payments.
This process is also linked to other factors. Their inflation is very high, and those willing to fight are becoming fewer.
Previously, they partially solved the recruitment issue with convicts — who are now ‘used up’ — and with migrants, who have learned to hide.
And ordinary Russians are not eager to fight”, — Andriushchenko said.
In his opinion, this demonstrates a systemic recruitment crisis in the Russian Federation, which, judging by everything, is moving toward real mobilization.
“This system is constantly degrading. They have already raised all these payments 5–6 times compared to when they were first introduced.
But they still cannot gather more people”, — Andriushchenko noted.
“The Russian command has two options — either increase payments or announce mobilization”
Putin has serious problems with manpower, said Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2007–2009, Volodymyr Ohryzko, in an interview with Army FM:
“Thanks to the heroic efforts of our Defense Forces, the amount of meat they recruit in Russia is less than the amount being destroyed on the territory of Ukraine and the temporarily occupied regions”.
To maintain the pace, the Russian command has two options.
“Either announce mobilization — partial or full. Most likely partial, but here lies a huge problem, because after the first partial mobilization, between 800,000 and 1 million men fled Russia, according to various estimates — and this is a colossal blow to the Russian economy.
Or the second option — raise payments”, — Ohryzko explained.
However, under the second option chosen by the Russian regime, the financial burden falls on the regions of the aggressor state.
And most of them have nothing to pay with.
Therefore, such measures are unlikely to produce the desired results, meaning the Ukrainian military will have the opportunity to gain an advantage on the front line.
