The international delegation, headed by Ana Lucía Bueno, ICRC Public Health Coordinator, and Sujit Panda, Head of the Physical Rehabilitation…
A popular-science publication titled “Ukraine’s Strategic Resilience: Expert Review” was presented in Kyiv.
The publication was prepared by the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the international analytical center GLOBSEC.
The focus is on analyzing Ukraine’s defense during the first years of the full-scale war, the factors of resilience, and forecasts for the development of the security environment.
Representatives of the Institute emphasized that the project was created to establish a platform for high-level military expertise, identify mistakes made during large-scale operations, and lay the groundwork for future defense transformations.
“We see the problems in the development and employment of the Armed Forces only under our own control. It is important for us to look through the eyes of top-level experts — to see what can be improved and which mistakes were made. Future changes are built on these mistakes”, — said Colonel Oleksii Nozdrachov, Deputy Head of the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Experts stressed that the history of the war must be documented right now, in real time, because in 10–20 years the picture of events may be distorted or interpreted differently.
Unexpected conclusions: will of the people, civilian technologies, and diplomatic resilience
Representatives of the Institute shared key insights that were surprising even for Ukrainian and Western military professionals.
“First and foremost — the civil–military dimension of defense. We can calculate the mobilization resource, but it is very difficult to predict the will of the people. Even after eight years of war before 2022, we could not accurately assess how ready Ukrainians were to take up arms. And for our partners, this was a real shock”, — added Oleksii Nozdrachov.
The second discovery was the large-scale integration of civilian technologies, especially UAVs, which came not from military institutions but from the market.
“Commercial technologies have proven extremely effective against the aggressor’s weapons and equipment. The speed of their integration is unprecedented”, — the Deputy Head of the Central Research Institute noted.
The third factor was Ukraine’s ability to mobilize international support.
Global expertise: “This is not a miracle — this is the heroism of the Ukrainian people”
Former NATO senior officials, commanders of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and heads of Allied transformation structures joined the study. Among them was retired Lieutenant General Pavel Macko, who delivered an exceptionally emotional speech.
“Ukraine has been holding out against the invasion for almost one thousand two hundred days. Many call it a miracle. But I want to say — there is no miracle here. This is not a failure of the Russians. This is the heroism of the Ukrainian people who united against a brutal aggressor”, — the Lieutenant General emphasized.
He noted that Ukrainians have demonstrated to the world a unique level of resilience and an ability to restore combat capability despite the enemy’s advantage in resources.
Key conclusions of international experts include:
- The defense of Kyiv and the northern regions became a strategic point that determined the further course of the war.
- Ukraine’s mobilization and self-organization of society are “unprecedented in the history of modern conflicts.”
- The mass use of civilian drones fundamentally changed the nature of hostilities.
- Ukraine’s strategic communications became one of the key factors in deterring Russia.
“This is not only a war of missiles and tanks. This is a war of narratives. Ukraine managed to win the battle for the truth”, — said Pavel Macko.
Representatives of the OSCE who coordinated the work with experts stressed that the demand for Ukrainian expertise continues to grow.
“Russia is working actively on the information front, trying to convince the world of its ‘resilience’. We conducted counter-analysis of these narratives, showing the real state of the Russian economy and combat potential”, — said Yuliia Osmolovska, Director of the GLOBSEC Office in Ukraine.
According to her, European partners have already begun scaling up defense production and preparing for the risks of further Russian aggression.
“These processes are already irreversible. And Ukraine’s experience is key for forming future strategies”, — added Yuliia Osmolovska.
“Your war is like January 1945”: a NATO general’s strategic perspective
Retired Lieutenant General Raimonds Graube drew attention to the importance of viewing the war through a broad historical lens.
“If we look through the prism of World War II, your war now resembles January 1945. Russia wants to live by the myths of the ‘Great Patriotic War,’ but their offensive is not thousands of kilometers like in the 1940s. It is tens. That is a sign of your success”, — he said.
Lieutenant General Graube urged Ukrainians to trust their commanders and avoid misguided judgments formed without a complete picture of the battle:
“It is easy to judge from the outside, seeing only fragments. But decisions are made based on data that neither civilian experts nor the media have. Believe me — Ukraine’s military command is doing extremely complex work”.
In conclusion, Raimonds Graube emphasized that the Baltic states view Ukraine’s defense as Europe’s defense:
“The defensive line of Latvia runs along the Dnipro, Donetsk region, and Luhansk region. You are defending our values as well. Your struggle is our security”.
